Hello everyone. We are Otclick, an HR marketing agency. We help businesses meet their staffing needs through advertising.
I am Artyom Bakharev, co-founder and head of contextual advertising.
We are launching a series of articles to introduce our working methods and translate marketing jargon into plain language.
Competition for staff in high-volume roles is growing faster than courier salaries. Job boards often do not produce enough applications to meet hiring needs. In these situations, contextual advertising can be an effective source of applications. Its advantage is predictability.
How to forecast cost per application
In this article, we will show you how to forecast cost per application when you have no historical data. For our example, imagine we are advertising a courier vacancy in Lobnya.
Build a broad keyword set
First, we need a broad set of two-word keyword phrases. That is enough for an initial forecast.
To generate phrases, we use a keyword combiner: a tool that mixes words into combinations.
In list No. 1, we add the intent of the query: job, vacancy, apply. In the second column, we add the specifics: delivery, courier. Click “Combine” and we get the following set:
- job courier;
- vacancy courier;
- apply courier;
- job delivery;
- vacancy delivery;
- apply delivery.
A good start. We can see how many potential candidates are currently entering these queries into search. We should reach the rest, too. Click “Add to list” and continue.
Expand the query list
Our candidates may well search for a particular employer brand they associate with delivery. If you hire couriers, you probably know your competitors.
Now we update list No. 1:
- job;
- vacancy;
- apply;
- courier.
In the second list, we add delivery brands: Ozon, Samokat and Lavka.
Because courier work is in demand and does not require specialised skills, we assume it will suit most Lobnya residents looking for work. We add “Lobnya” to list No. 2.
We get:
- courier Lobnya;
- job Lobnya;
- vacancies Lobnya;
- courier Ozon;
- job Ozon;
- vacancies Ozon;
- courier Samokat;
- job Samokat;
- vacancies Samokat;
- courier Lavka;
- job Lavka;
- vacancies Lavka.
This set is enough to estimate demand.
Calculate the forecast in Yandex Direct
Next, we go to Yandex Direct. We need the “Budget forecast” tool.
Paste in the collected phrases.
Click “Calculate”.
Next, we build a simple funnel using our template. Add VAT to get 36 000 roubles. Enter that amount in the budget field of the “Search” row.
Divide the spend by the number of clicks. Enter the clicks in the appropriate field to get a cost per click of 33 roubles. Since we are forecasting search traffic, we can use an application conversion rate of 8%, the standard rate for similar projects. The template includes it automatically. So our search forecast is 86 applications at 416 roubles each.
Add a Yandex Advertising Network forecast
We can attract additional volume from the Yandex Advertising Network. To do that, we add another row to our calculation. The network does not have forecasting tools as precise as search, but it always includes at least the same number of users from our target audience as search does.
For a minimum forecast in the Yandex Advertising Network, we can double the search click volume; in practice, the volume may be ten times higher. We draw on our experience and take the minimum. We keep cost per click the same as in search. Conversion in the network will be lower because the audience is broader: 4%.
Around 2 000 clicks at 33 roubles and a 4% conversion rate give us a benchmark of 86 applications on a budget of 72 000 roubles. The forecast cost per application from the Yandex Advertising Network is 836 roubles.
Forecast result
We have now forecast spend, application volume and cost per application. 108 000 roubles for a month of Yandex Direct advertising will bring us 172 applications for the vacancy.
You can then adjust the forecast to match your hiring needs.
You can get the forecast template in our Telegram channel. Subscribe to our blog and Telegram: there is more useful content to come.
Want to commission end-to-end promotion?