White-collar workers, it looks like we are in trouble.
While everyone was wondering whether AI would replace artists, neural networks started undercutting the office job market.
According to hh and SuperJob data for 2025, wages in construction and industry grew by an average of 18-25%. In some roles, such as welders and installers, growth reached 30%+.
Meanwhile, office positions in marketing, analytics and middle management saw growth of 5-8% or stagnation. In some cases, pay even fell, if you look at actual offers rather than salary expectations.
Why did this happen?
Today, one savvy specialist with a GPT subscription can handle the work of several people.
McKinsey estimated that in 2025, up to 30% of tasks in office roles had already been automated or accelerated with AI.
As a result, the market for office specialists is simply overcrowded. There are more of them than tasks that people are willing to pay for.
With manual work, the situation is the opposite.
According to Eurostat and local EU studies, the shortage of skilled construction workers exceeds 20-25% of demand. Put simply, one in four of the specialists needed is missing from the market.
What is changing for specialists
People have always been hired for their experience, breadth of exposure and years in the industry. That was a currency everyone understood.
Now it turns out that yesterday's student, with a good prompt and a subscription costing 2000 roubles, can produce work on a par with a solid mid-level specialist.
The next step follows: instead of “experts”, companies are increasingly hiring tool operators. Fast, cheap and scalable.
When AI replaces juniors, we welcome the immediate savings. But eventually, there will be no one to replace today's leads and seniors: they will have nowhere to develop, because neural networks have taken over the training ground.
The takeaway
The takeaway is not that everything is lost. The market is not dying; it is shifting.
Office roles remain, but now people are paid for real added value rather than participation in a process.
Practical experience combined with a basic understanding of technology is becoming the new currency.